China is nearing a tipping point on the 1 child policy. It'll be 3-4 years and we'll see bad effects there.

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Apr 30, 2024
2:55:16pm

Tokolosh Stop the Stupid party member

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Tokolosh

Bio page: Tokolosh
Joined: Jun 9, 2004
Last login: May 21, 2024
Total posts: 60,687 (5,670 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

One other interesting outcome of the impact of having less children

TNT

Apr 30, 2:53pm

Talk to Japan & Italy about that. Low birth rates threaten their economies.

Forzaitalia

Apr 30, 2:55pm

China is nearing a tipping point on the 1 child policy. It'll be 3-4 years and we'll see bad effects there.

Tokolosh

Apr 30, 2:55pm

The folly of the 1 child mandate is a real problem for China. Myopic political

Forzaitalia

Apr 30, 2:57pm

The irony is that the policy was unnecessary. They scrapped it years ago, but

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 2:59pm

Once it changed the culture, the policy itself was probably irrelevant

Gustav

Apr 30, 3:03pm

I don’t even think it did that. China is just like everyone else now. It didn’t

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 3:05pm

Maybe, but it probably accelerated it and locked it in at one, instead of two

Gustav

Apr 30, 3:10pm

It accelerated it, but China’s fertility rate was never 1.0. Today it’s 1.7

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 3:28pm

Interesting, that's higher than I thought

Gustav

Apr 30, 3:29pm

Some claim it’s actually much worse than 1.4. China has a big problem

BR549

Apr 30, 7:23pm

Sure, but so do many other countries that never had a 1-child policy. For

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 7:37pm

Cuturally, it used to be good to have large families in China. Once the culture

Parker Schnabel

Apr 30, 3:18pm

Yep as my BYU econ professor taught: children are an economic cost in the

Forzaitalia

Apr 30, 3:26pm

Taiwan’s fertility rate today is 1.2, lower than China’s at 1.7 (or 1.45 per the

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 3:30pm

Right, it is nuanced. In 1970, the fertility rate was 6.3 The one-child policy

Parker Schnabel

Apr 30, 3:48pm

Already seeing them. Demographics is a big factor in their RE crisis.

rad dawg

Apr 30, 2:59pm

Grandkids in China or grandkids here? There are still tons of people wanting to

Mitty

Apr 30, 3:02pm

Here. Immigration won't save us.

rad dawg

Apr 30, 3:05pm

And as far as feeling the effects, we already are starting to.

rad dawg

Apr 30, 3:13pm

Well, I don't know about save, but the housing shortage here is so bad I have

Mitty

Apr 30, 3:14pm

Housing shortages are localized and exaggerated.

rad dawg

Apr 30, 3:21pm

Immigration FTW.

Japan Coug

Apr 30, 2:57pm

Immigration, births, robots. Go firing on all cylinders.

Genghis Spreads

Apr 30, 2:58pm

"More and more people" sounds like a Ponzi scheme.

Cougar Junkie

Apr 30, 2:57pm

For years and years, it was "overpopulation will kill us!", now it's "uh oh"

Mitty

Apr 30, 3:00pm

Based on the data from each time period is this really a surprise?

AtomicHamster

Apr 30, 3:11pm

Russia also has a negative birth rate. That’s fueling Putins push for more

wildwilderness

Apr 30, 3:01pm

I'd be happy to give putin something he can do.

S-rizzle

Apr 30, 3:08pm

Putins response to neg birth rate is to get Russians killed in a protracted war.

Ycrazy

Apr 30, 3:18pm

Apparently starting a war is an excellent way to increase the population

CaliWG

Apr 30, 4:03pm

There can be an increase in births after a war... but Russia will most likely

wildwilderness

Apr 30, 5:40pm

*fewer

gangbusters

Apr 30, 3:04pm

Oh....hahahahahaha. Very funny. Ignore feature engaged!

TNT

Apr 30, 3:37pm

oe "lesser."

85fan

Apr 30, 4:23pm

We had a glimpse of that when trying to get people back to work during COVID

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