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Apr 30, 2024
3:28:41pm
Japan Coug Intervention Needed
It accelerated it, but China’s fertility rate was never 1.0. Today it’s 1.7
(or 1.45, if you believe the CIA World Factbook), which is below replacement but above or similar to surrounding countries like South Korea (0.9) and Taiwan (1.2), and most of Europe and East Asia. And not that much lower than the US (1.8).

[Edit: Upon further review, I saw that some sources (including some in the link I posted) list China's fertility rate at 1.2 now, the same as Taiwan. The CIA World Factbook has them at 1.45 in 2023. It's interesting how much sources can differ on this sort of metric.]

The “one-child” policy was always a bit of a misnomer, as they always had exceptions. Ethnic minorities were able to have more kids, and farmers too, if their oldest was a girl. Over time they added exceptions for others too — for example, if both spouses were single children, then they were allowed to have two.

I think the policy did make a difference in the late ‘70s and ‘80s, but I think that by the mid-1990s it wasn’t really making much of a difference at all. I think China’s fertility rate today would probably be pretty much exactly the same had the one-child policy never existed.

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Apr 30, 2024 at 3:28:41pm
Message modified by Japan Coug on Apr 30, 2024 at 5:14:37pm
Message modified by Japan Coug on Apr 30, 2024 at 5:14:48pm
Message modified by Japan Coug on Apr 30, 2024 at 5:19:33pm
Message modified by Japan Coug on Apr 30, 2024 at 5:21:43pm
Japan Coug
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Japan Coug
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