Italy locked down on 3/9 and then about a week later deaths plateaued.

Mar 18, 2020
1:49:10am

Cougar8Duck All-American

So if we're locking down now, good chance in about a week our rate plateaus, at whatever rate it is. My guess is somewhere between Italy and SK. Levels off for a week and then drops.

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Cougar8Duck

New username: Mr Salad
Bio page: Cougar8Duck
Joined: Jul 2, 2010
Last login: Oct 28, 2023
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Messages

Author

Time

Good news in Italy, bad news in the US

cougarblue

3/18/20 1:06am

Increased testing means increased cases.

cheezedawg

3/18/20 1:07am

Also, show me the US death rate. WAY more important

gaspasscoug

3/18/20 1:08am

Yes. People know your numbers and what they mean.

kotacoug

3/18/20 1:11am

i'd prefer to make up my numbers and double down on my wrong conclusions

Cougarclaw

3/18/20 9:43am

We'll likely reach their # of cases as testing increases. Our population is 5x

dazcoug

3/18/20 1:18pm

But our death chart looks better, which is really the important thing with how

wabluecoug

3/18/20 1:08am

No it doesn't. It is just behind.

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 1:41am

“Two to three weeks behind Italy”!!! The rallying cry

cougfanz

3/18/20 1:45am

In a couple days the cry will be we’re just a month behind Italy.

kotacoug

3/18/20 1:47am

No, it is about 10 days. Italy had over 1000 new cases on March 7th

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 2:04am

That's total cases, total deaths is about 13 days behind. They were 107 on 3/4

wabluecoug

3/18/20 2:08am

Not sure your point. Ok we are two weeks behind. That only paints a grimmer

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 2:13am

Here is MY point. Ive had 20 cases of influenz a at work this month 1 death 1 st

CarolinaCoug

3/18/20 10:43am

Yes worldwide deaths are fairly low right now because why?

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 12:56pm

It keeps lagging further and further behind Italy. It was a week lag, then 11

wabluecoug

3/18/20 1:47am

Yep.

kotacoug

3/18/20 1:48am

How many times do we have to explain this. The more testing we do the

kotacoug

3/18/20 1:10am

Based on that, there's a chance the spread rate is even worse than Italy

cougarblue

3/18/20 1:14am

The numbers are a function of testing not spread rate

kotacoug

3/18/20 1:21am

We are one of the worst countries in the world in testing

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 1:45am

Or are an NBA players? None of them are hospitalized. No symptoms, even.

CosmoK

3/18/20 5:56am

That still doesn't mean it's spreading faster or slower here.

Harbinger

3/18/20 6:05am

So? Yeah and most people arent sick nor dying..move on alrezdy

CarolinaCoug

3/18/20 11:09am

Which means Italy is reaching peak in the 30 day window just like China, and

777

3/18/20 1:13am

Why are we comparing ourselves to Italy. Why not Germany or South Korea?

OceanMang

3/18/20 1:24am

Doesn’t fit the panic narrative.

kotacoug

3/18/20 1:24am

Speaking of panic, just wait until the crowded population centers hit their

wabluecoug

3/18/20 1:38am

The media do a great job of providing perspective, don’t they? 😁

Run-DMT

3/18/20 1:39am

It's greatest virtue, especially in the last decade.

Y05

3/18/20 3:51am

I would say that our initial response was more like Italy than SK. Don't know

Cougar8Duck

3/18/20 1:41am

Why would you say that? We seem to be handling it just as well as SK.

kotacoug

3/18/20 1:43am

Seriously? They test 10,000 a day. We didn't reach that mark for weeks

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 1:55am

The US still tests fewer than 4K a day through private labs

Sumguy

3/18/20 7:45am

I may be wrong, but my understanding is that SK very rapidly implemented testing

Cougar8Duck

3/18/20 1:55am

All testing does is show how many people actually have it.

OceanMang

3/18/20 2:03am

You don't get it, if people don't know they have it they are MUCH

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 2:06am

No, you don't get it. It's already been spread and we're not dying in droves.

OceanMang

3/18/20 2:13am

Lol. We'll see I guess. We know the critical cases are spiraling exponentially

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 2:28am

"We know that currently 52% of all confirmed cases with a result in the US have

OceanMang

3/18/20 2:33am

So you don't keep up on it. Gotcha.

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 2:36am

So you are going off of closed cases deaths. You got me. We're all going to die.

OceanMang

3/18/20 2:47am

Good comeback. After saying I was out of my mind and

kimdaddy35

3/18/20 2:56am

I'm trying to be civil

OceanMang

3/18/20 3:22am

He doesn’t understand that statistic is completely meaningless.

antiyewt

3/18/20 10:06am

I propose that we stop all testing immediately so that the numbers look great. They will level out and

hamaca

3/18/20 11:16am

I crease testing let people realize everyone has it and

CarolinaCoug

3/18/20 11:24am

Whi current. Numbers says youre wrong. 180k cases workdwide. 6t00 deaths

CarolinaCoug

3/18/20 11:21am

Tou dont get it ..so what?

CarolinaCoug

3/18/20 11:14am

Yes and no. SK and Germany have both been ahead on testing. In fact SK is

Cougar8Duck

3/18/20 2:10am

Look, I'm not trying to say that we're going to see massive deaths, I just

Cougar8Duck

3/18/20 2:13am

Will they look like the flu cirve this year?

CarolinaCoug

3/18/20 11:26am

Half their outbreak was one mega church.

EtTuKalante

3/26/20 12:15am

The scale on the US graph isn’t the same as the Italy graph.

autonomous

3/18/20 1:42am

Wow you don’t say....

kotacoug

3/18/20 1:45am

Italy locked down on 3/9 and then about a week later deaths plateaued.

Cougar8Duck

3/18/20 1:49am

It's not steeper. Check the y axis scales.

rggee

3/18/20 3:57am

No good deed goes unpunished my friend

NewMexiCoug

3/18/20 4:12am

do people really not understand this isn't "new cases"?

Checks Out

3/18/20 9:53am

We are doing more tests. . Keep in mind ~40 mil flu cases in isa

CarolinaCoug

3/18/20 10:40am

17 days after first death: Italy 366 deaths, US 109 deaths

run26

3/18/20 11:21am

Hey, let's not brings data and facts into this thing.

wabluecoug

3/18/20 11:23am

Do you realize the population of the US is 5 1/2 times that of Italy?

TrueBlue67

3/18/20 11:31am

You can spin this however you want, of course cases are going to go up with testing but deaths remains low when compared

Nuke

3/18/20 11:35am

this this this this

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