This is called switch tracking.

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Apr 6, 2020
8:42:35am

a priori Truly Addicted User

This is called switch tracking.

You're changing the argument because you don't feel comfortable arguing the main point.

If it's a fat tail event and nobody knows how it behaves, then what is your suggestion for those doing the modeling?

The consequences to being wrong are aysmmetric.

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a priori

Previous username: Random Walk
Bio page: a priori
Joined: Sep 22, 2007
Last login: Jun 9, 2024
Total posts: 36,970 (1,540 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

UW model has updated numbers. Changes in the right direction.

Joe Banks

4/6/20 7:17am

So in other words they were completely wrong and have adjust more to reality?

ordinary tri guy

4/6/20 7:20am

Social distancing and lots of testing are working better than predicted.

Joe Banks

4/6/20 7:24am

This excuse is so tired. That is not why these models are off.

CSoul

4/6/20 7:31am

Do you live in a normally distributed world?

a priori

4/6/20 7:32am

I'm very familiar with that concept (haven't read those books)

CSoul

4/6/20 7:46am

Intellectually dishonest because I disagree?

a priori

4/6/20 8:34am

Well I clearly know you disagree, that wasn't at argument

CSoul

4/6/20 8:36am

This is called switch tracking.

a priori

4/6/20 8:42am

To model it like a typical viral disease outbreak and to rely on existing

CSoul

4/6/20 8:51am

Lots of hand waving in your post.

a priori

4/6/20 9:00am

Not hindsight bias, I predicted this weeks ago, good try though.

CSoul

4/6/20 9:01am

There were no consequences to your prediction.

a priori

4/6/20 9:12am

I NEVER said do nothing, so I don't even know what you are preaching here

CSoul

4/6/20 9:19am

I'm not preaching anything.

a priori

4/6/20 10:04am

We took extraordinary measures, and they're working. Isn't that good?

ReyOso

4/6/20 8:30am

If Sweden doesn't turn to a lockdown and yet does not suffer

mbs6

4/6/20 9:10am

Heads they win. Tails they win. If deaths were way above models, it proves

Bostonblue

4/6/20 8:53am

With good numbers, everyone can declare they were right. Lol.

Joe Banks

4/6/20 9:03am

Not with bad numbers though.

Bostonblue

4/6/20 9:12am

The issue is the horrible off numbers causes undo panic. Did people in Bama...

ordinary tri guy

4/6/20 9:49am

Amazing how the obvious answer that interventions worked

coolcats

4/6/20 7:36am

Inaccurate models and benefits from social distancing are not mutually exclusive

4/6/20 8:35am

Better to be safe than sorry. This thing isn't over.

rockyrd

4/6/20 9:38am

It's already way off again and way too high. These models

CSoul

4/6/20 7:24am

How is it that the entire state of NY only has 718 ICU beds?

deejo

4/6/20 7:31am

I've seen ~3000 listed in most places.

mokelembembe

4/6/20 7:35am

It must be the number of unoccupied beds,

Everyman

4/6/20 7:41am

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

4/6/20 7:39am

That twitter post is looking at the older model prior to them updating it this

jreid191

4/6/20 8:14am

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

4/6/20 9:14am

But it hopefully will mean the newer model will be more accurate/reliable going

jreid191

4/6/20 9:17am

<< Deleted >>

Abe Froman

4/6/20 9:24am

Utah's numbers were originally 619, then modified to 580, until this change

Jasbo

4/6/20 8:38am

There was a posted article about risk management that is spot on. Western

Benfica1

4/6/20 10:29am

Strange how all of the models seem to be off in the same direction

cougarnw

4/6/20 10:59am

And by a lot. I could see being 10-15% each way, but 300% + off.

Benfica1

4/6/20 11:30am

It's telling about the motives

HighHorse

4/6/20 11:48am

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