Epidemiologists aren't modelers, they research the particulars of a disease and how you can control spread. Modeling is a whole different science and when the epidemiologists had almost no good info on the actual disease (we have gone back and forth on whether it's aerosol spread like 10 times) then when they pass it to modelers it completely breaks down because they keep insisting on using models that require good knowledge of the actual disease and the spread to even work remotely well.