BYU lost 3 games that could have gone either way. If you have Ty’son for USF or Toledo, both games are likely a BYU win. Even without him, BYU had a chance to win in the last minute of both games. The combination of coaching decisions and injuries lost those games. BYU also had chances to close out Hawaii, but didn’t get any of the breaks.

I realize you can do the same analysis for Tennessee and USC. My point is the ceiling of last years team talent wise was 10 games. The floor was lower than 7.

My main point is that comparing recruiting averages is way too simplified to compare talent. BYU gets a Payton Wilgar and Baylor Romney type through the walk on program and the biggest talents through transfers. 4 out of 5 of the best NFL prospects didn’t come through a signing day hype of a blue chipper that signed.

The tide is turning with underclassmen vs upperclassmen. The better players on the roster are growing up and will be the core of the team through 2021. To say that it’s an every year pattern is not true.