Sorry but anyone paying attention to CFB knows how drastically it can change year to year. We saw one end of the spectrum and anyone is capable of the other. MSU, Fresno and others just barely did it.
I don't think some people really know what a mess of a program actually looks like. How could they when they've been spoiled for over a decade? This is like that dumb "trending" discussion. There's no trending. There was only one season. For all we know it was an outlier as much as it was anything about "trending" down.
Nobody can prove it's currently a mess. No, the opposite can't be proven yet either. But last year isn't all that relevant anymore. You can make a case for things this year. A front-loaded schedule again (although that doesn't say anything about our program). QB. Etc. But don't talk about "last year's scores." That means nothing right now.
So you said there's no way to prove something positive, and you're right. There are just about all the signs you could ask for in an off-season, and that's still only an indicator, not "proof." Because it's still the off-season. But you can't actually prove the program is currently a mess, either. We HAD a mess of a season but as much as guys like Mathew would love for BYU to suck (strange as a "fan"), just so they can be right, you can't have it both ways if you're going to use this whole "proof" thing.