A million dollars is a ton of money to me as well, I'd take on risk for that.

I'd take the 3 NBA shot challenge with 10 years prison on the line, far, far before I'd take this sniper challenge. I'm not a basketball player, and I am a trained designated marksman, yet the basketball challenge is much, much easier of a task. Yeah, designated marksman is not as extensive training as a SWAT sniper or military sniper, but it is a lot more than most routine gun enthusiasts, especially when it comes to long range shooting. I'd still take the basketball challenge way before the shooting. In fact, I'd take 10 chances to throw a golf ball in a drinking cup from half-court long before this, the margins would be better for that than for hitting a 6" circle at 2000 with a rifle at my skill level. You'd at least get feedback with where each golf ball missed - at 2000 yds, depending on the terrain and mirage, you may see no trace and no splash, so you are essentially flying blind with where your last shot landed, and essentially have to guess how and where to correct your next shot. It's stabs in the dark at times. Even with a brilliant spotter that sees trace or splash, you're working with such tiny margins that translating what they saw into what you dialed can be extremely difficult.

Keep in mind, we are talking 1/3 MOA accuracy. That is a tough accuracy standard at 100 yds, we are looking at 2000 yards in this scenario. As distance increases, so do the effects of variables on the bullet. With an instrument capable of 1 MOA in a Barrett rifle. The margins are razor thin, near impossible in 10 shots even for a career, experienced sniper. And yes, there have been some incredible shots at long distances in both military and training environments, but just based on the mechanical limitations (1 MOA vs 1/3 MOA) even experienced snipers will tell you there is a bit of luck combined with phenomenal calculations and perfect holds when it comes to incredible shots.

Most sniper qualifications with the .50 between 1000 yds and 2000 yds use old tanks and MRAPs as targets for the sniper's qualifications, which are very difficult quals. We're talking 100 square feet or more of target in a tank or MRAP, which are a tough standard used for official qualifications. This scenario requires hitting a 6" circle, splitting a large grapefruit at 2000, instead of getting a hit on a tank. It's incredibly tiny.

The probability of success is extremely small, even if you are a very experienced sniper, just based on the variables, of which there are tons.