As Independent:
12-0. Possible playoff, most likely NY6.
11-1. Most likely NY6. Some things would have to fall right.
10-2. Very small possibility of NY6. Many things would have to fall BYU's way. Otherwise same as everything under 10 wins.
9-3 to 6-6 makes no difference to end of season.
As AAC or MWC member:
12-0. NY6 every time
11-1. Most of the time NY6. Same as independent.
10-2 - 6-6. Pretty much the same other than the name of the bowl game changes.