I figured that with everybody returning that would move them about 15 spots. I think the change in coaching staff likely is an improvement of about 10 spots as well. The Toolson transfer probably moves them up about 15 more. That puts them right on the bubble of winning an NCAA 1st round game.
If Harward gets his waiver, which he won't, then they might actually be able to win one. But without him I expect BYU to be about as good as they were from Dave Rose year 2 thru Jimmer's SO year.
With all the returning experience they should also look better than they are in November and December so if they have a front loaded schedule they ought to be able to create an early buzz/excitement about the team.
Limited athletically on the perimeter and a lack of post depth are the two weaknesses. If Nick Emery is willing to give it all up on the defensive effort defending on the ball there might be hope to ameliorate some of the perimeter defending weakness. He is a senior and I hope he takes that role- with an above average defensive stopper this could be a really good team.
I am bully for this hoops team.