The initial line represents what they believe is the average betting public perception. The final line represents what actually is the average betting public perception.

The House takes their cut from every bet, so as long as there is even money on every bet, the House is guaranteed a positive return.


The betting perception does not always match reality. Every week you can usually find a few lines that the average person perceives to be accurate, but isn't really. That is where the pros make their money.

Team A is having a bad year. Team B a good year. A betting line is set at 20+, because the average public believes Team B is going to wipe the floor. But then you look into what the teams are scoring, what they are giving up, that Team B rarely wins by 20+, Team A rarely loses by that much, and you can see that a 20+ victory is highly unlikely. Doesn't mean it won't happen, just unlikely.

Find enough of those games and you can win more than you lose. So, the question is, how close to reality is the over under for BYU, and how much is just perception based on last year? I think a lot of our opponents this year are getting too much credit for last year. 5.5 sounds low.

But that leads to the big rule of betting: don't bet on a team where you have an emotional investment. You'll lose more than you win.