Holmoe and Company know that the schedule is tough and expected roughly 6 wins this year. It's possible that going 2-2 may have inflated the expectations. But if Kalani had gone 0-4 and then finished 5-7 or 6-6, he would have absolutely received an extension. In a weird way, going 2-2 in the first four games may have doomed Kalani because those two fluke wins artificially inflated the season goals.
But if Kalani gets 5 wins, he'll likely get another year as both he and Tom will reflect on the pre-season expectations, recognize that they missed the target by 1 game, and chalk that up to injuries and a tough schedule.