No one is expecting us to win a Natty in the foreseeable future. We all know our limitations (honor code, coaching requirements, funding, no conference, limited recruiting pool).
All of that notwithstanding, there is NO REASON we should regularly lose to teams like Toledo, Umass, South Florida, Hawaii, Utah State, etc. If we truly don't have the resources to beat those types of teams 80-90% of the time, then I'm ready for BYU to go back to the Mountain West.
My expectations are to win those games, go 50-50 against top G5 teams and lower to mid tier P5 teams (Arizona, Boise, etc.), win 3-4 out of 10 against Utah (not even expecting 50% anymore), and then pick off a win against elite teams from time to time.
Those are not unreasonable expectations for BYU.