If you're a 9 seed, historically that's about a 49% chance of winning in the first round but 10% conditional probability of winning in the 2nd round.
If you're a 10 seed, historically that's about a 38% chance of winning in the first round but 45% conditional probability of winning in the 2nd round.
There are reasons why you almost always see more 10-12s in the Sweet 16 than 8-9s. If you win just one game in the tournament but then lose 2 days later, no one really cares. It takes winning those first two to get a lot of media attention in the week leading up to the Sweet 16. Given the right matchups, BYU has a chance to get to that point this year. But there's no "right matchup" if we hit the 8 or 9 seed. If you get that seed then you're out after the first weekend pretty much no matter how well you play.