still possible it could be a q2 win for us

Feb 20, 2020
11:05:06am

BlueK All-American

they wouldn't necessarily drop by losing to us, but it will be close and really depends on what they do in their other games. Both LMU and USD moved up after playing us.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Feb 20, 2020 at 11:05:06am

Message modified by BlueK on Feb 20, 2020 at 11:05:26am

Message modified by BlueK on Feb 20, 2020 at 11:14:19am

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BlueK

Bio page: BlueK
Joined: May 3, 2001
Last login: Jan 10, 2021
Total posts: 58,221 (25 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Why beating Santa Clara and Pepperdine is the most important thing, not Gonzaga

IceWaterExtraIce

2/20/20 9:42am

You'd rather be a 12 seed than an 8 seed?

byubyu

2/20/20 9:44am

12's have a good track record against 5's, and you don't have to play a #1 in

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:45am

You're worried about making the sweet 16.

byubyu

2/20/20 9:48am

I think the team has the talent to get to the sweet 16 with the right draw.

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:50am

Have they beaten any team that is projected to be a 5 seed or higher?

byubyu

2/20/20 9:53am

The closest team that we've played to a 5 seed is probably Houston, we beat them

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:59am

Fair, but a first round or second round exit isn't special regardless. So as far

YaHerdWithPerd

2/20/20 11:39am

it's special for us

BlueK

2/20/20 12:19pm

Yep. 53% of teams will go home without making it to the Round of 32.

Gentleman Stan

2/20/20 9:53am

I'm thinking more like 91% of teams won't make it to the round of 32.

BYUCPA

2/20/20 10:01am

Yep. I definitely would. A 5 seed would be very nervous to play us. Not much

Coach's Dad

2/20/20 9:45am

Seeds 10-12 are historically about twice as likely as 8-9 to make the Sweet 16

The Shazad

2/20/20 9:48am

Well obviously, they have to play a one seed next

IceWaterExtraIce

2/20/20 9:49am

And historically BYU can't make it past the first day.

byubyu

2/20/20 9:50am

well clearly you'd want to avoid a play-in game

The Shazad

2/20/20 9:53am

But much less likely to make the Round of 32. You want an 8-9. Only 47% of the

Gentleman Stan

2/20/20 9:53am

it all depends what your goal is as a team

The Shazad

2/20/20 9:55am

This is a nice, sensible comment.

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:59am

Teams that haven't advanced to the Round of 32 in 9 years had better be focused

Gentleman Stan

2/20/20 10:25am

of course they should focus on winning

The Shazad

2/20/20 10:30am

Right. And that's an 8-9.

Gentleman Stan

2/20/20 10:38am

ok, whatever

The Shazad

2/20/20 10:52am

I would. The difference in opponent in rd 1 is negligible.

flyzag

2/20/20 9:53am

The difference is negligible between Kentucky and St Mary's?

byubyu

2/20/20 9:58am

Yes, Kentucky kenpom rank =28, SMC=34

flyzag

2/20/20 10:01am

But, if you read my post, I never mentioned kentucky.

flyzag

2/20/20 10:03am

Wonder why.....

byubyu

2/20/20 10:04am

just keep in mind, a 12 seed with an at-large bid = play-in game

BlueK

2/20/20 9:45am

That's a good consideration.

Dakota Cougar

2/20/20 9:47am

The ideal thing would be to have convincing wins against Santa Clara and Pepp

Ode to Hoy

2/20/20 9:47am

Agreed except for the rather lose to both thing

fattycoug

2/20/20 9:49am

you should add quadrants to your analysis. Pepperdine is probably a q2 game

BlueK

2/20/20 9:50am

Just did, thanks for the tip

IceWaterExtraIce

2/20/20 9:54am

Pepperdine will be Q2 if we lose, Q3 if we win.

rggee

2/20/20 9:57am

still possible it could be a q2 win for us

BlueK

2/20/20 11:05am

LMU and USD were down in the 240s range. I doubt Pepperdine will move up by

rggee

2/20/20 12:34pm

I agree wholeheartedly. Gonzaga is not a must win and not a probable win

idacoug

2/20/20 9:52am

The important thing is to go 2 of 3. Which games won’t make that big of a

cougarfann888

2/20/20 10:00am

It must be exhausting to worry so much about things beyond your control

StantonMac

2/20/20 10:08am

Wow that was good analysis, I agree with that totally

spicycoug

2/20/20 10:13am

Well said. Tonight's game might be the most important game BYU has left.

inside_info?

2/20/20 10:22am

Don't know about the seeding, but absolutely agree those are the important games

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