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Feb 21, 2020
7:36:38am
jreid191 All-American
Looks like the opponent comparison is only when they've played them the same
number of times. Currently BYU is 1.5 games ahead of SMC. That means if BYU wins out they get the 2 seed regardless of what SMC does. Here's the various possible scenarios:

BYU finishes 2-0:
BYU gets 2 seed regardless of how SMC finishes the seson

BYU goes 1-1 with loss to Gonzaga, SMC goes 3-0
SMC gets 2 seed due to better record vs Gonzaga

BYU goes 1-1 with loss to Pepperdine, SMC goes 3-0
SMC gets 2 seed due to better record vs San Francisco (both 1-1 vs Gonzaga; Pacific and Pepperdine both skipped for comparison due to unbalanced schedules)

BYU goes 1-1, SMC goes 2-1
BYU gets 2 seed due to better conference record (this is the single most likely final outcome)

BYU goes 0-2, SMC goes 3-0
SMU gets 2 seed due to better conference record

BYU goes 0-2, SMC goes 2-1, Pacific finishes 3-0
I believe BYU gets the 2 seed due to being 2-1 in head-to-head of the 3 teams, SMC is 2-2, and Pacific is 1-2.

BYU goes 0-2, SMC goes 2-1 w/ loss to San Diego or Santa Clara, Pacific doesn't finish 3-0
SMC gets 2 seed due to better record vs Gonzaga

BYU goes 0-2, SMC goes 2-1 w/ loss to Gonzaga, Pacific doesn't finish 3-0
SMC gets 2 seed due to better record vs San Francisco (both 1-1 vs Gonzaga; Pacific and Pepperdine both skipped for comparison due to unbalanced schedules)

SMC goes 1-2
BYU gets 2 seed regardless of how BYU finishes.

Overall odds of BYU's final seed based upon odds for winning each game:
BYU 2 seed: 87.75%
BYU 3 seed: 12.25%

In recap - a 2-way tie for BYU and SMC would be really bad for BYU who would lose such a tie pretty much 100% of the time. However, odds of a 2-way tie taking place between them is only 12.25% at this point in time so it more than likely is something we won't have to worry about.
jreid191
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jreid191
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2/21/20 7:31am

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