A "doubling every X days" isn't a rate in a "Y per time" sense

Mar 27, 2020
12:33:16pm

Psalm Trees All-American

"Doubling every X time period" is a useful metric for understanding how fast a quantity increases under exponential growth, but calling it a rate is inaccurate.

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Psalm Trees

Previous username: Yoshinobu
Bio page: Psalm Trees
Joined: Nov 2, 2008
Last login: May 3, 2024
Total posts: 15,244 (782 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Deaths per day

HONOMO

3/27/20 12:15pm

It’s not perfect, just like the other numbers

buffgato

3/27/20 12:17pm

Not cumulative linear scale no. Daily isolated are better along with

CSoul

3/27/20 12:19pm

How can you have a "Death Rate" if you only have number of deaths?

PJMort

3/27/20 12:20pm

What value is your death rate, if you don't know the denominator?

Indy Coug

3/27/20 12:23pm

A "doubling every X days" isn't a rate in a "Y per time" sense

Psalm Trees

3/27/20 12:33pm

We are using the data from South Korea to determine the Case Fatality Rate.

Zoobieman

3/27/20 12:51pm

I think best metric is just watching what happens in WA

cougfanz

3/27/20 12:22pm

Death Rate seems more scary to me than deaths per day. *1.5%.

The Old Y

3/27/20 12:24pm

That's why I hate those numbers. They're all we have to go on but we all know they are inflated

Indy Coug

3/27/20 12:26pm

Do you not trust the South Korean Case Fatality Rate?

Zoobieman

3/27/20 1:02pm

Nope. Don't you trust the German death to case ratio?

Indy Coug

3/27/20 1:08pm

The Germans and South Korean trends seem to be evolving similarly

coolcats

3/27/20 1:16pm

It doesn't contradict what I just said. No one is really doing enough serious work on quantifying

Indy Coug

3/27/20 1:19pm

I do trust the German number will be accurate at the end of the day.

Zoobieman

3/27/20 1:31pm

Yes, you basically have a 1.5% chance of dying if you have severe symptoms.

N8Dawg

3/27/20 12:26pm

If you have “severe” symptoms your chance at dying is a whole lot higher than

cougfanz

3/27/20 12:32pm

Sorry, worse than mild.

N8Dawg

3/27/20 12:34pm

That's scary!

darkcoug

3/27/20 12:31pm

That's showing total cumulative deaths, not deaths per day, right?

Scratch

3/27/20 12:34pm

Early on Death rate (Deaths per day) would be a good stat.

Zoobieman

3/27/20 12:49pm

It looks to be slowing the past couple days but today looks like a bigger day

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