We are using the data from South Korea to determine the Case Fatality Rate.

Mar 27, 2020
12:51:59pm

Zoobieman Truly Addicted User

South Korea was on top of their game. Thanks to them we have a decent estimate of the case fatality rate because they were testing early on and tested broadly.

Why do people think the Case Fatality rate is coming from Europe or North America?

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Mar 27, 2020 at 12:51:59pm

Message modified by Zoobieman on Mar 27, 2020 at 12:53:08pm

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Zoobieman

Bio page: Zoobieman
Joined: Apr 23, 2012
Last login: May 3, 2024
Total posts: 10,516 (29 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Deaths per day

HONOMO

3/27/20 12:15pm

It’s not perfect, just like the other numbers

buffgato

3/27/20 12:17pm

Not cumulative linear scale no. Daily isolated are better along with

CSoul

3/27/20 12:19pm

How can you have a "Death Rate" if you only have number of deaths?

PJMort

3/27/20 12:20pm

What value is your death rate, if you don't know the denominator?

Indy Coug

3/27/20 12:23pm

A "doubling every X days" isn't a rate in a "Y per time" sense

Psalm Trees

3/27/20 12:33pm

We are using the data from South Korea to determine the Case Fatality Rate.

Zoobieman

3/27/20 12:51pm

I think best metric is just watching what happens in WA

cougfanz

3/27/20 12:22pm

Death Rate seems more scary to me than deaths per day. *1.5%.

The Old Y

3/27/20 12:24pm

That's why I hate those numbers. They're all we have to go on but we all know they are inflated

Indy Coug

3/27/20 12:26pm

Do you not trust the South Korean Case Fatality Rate?

Zoobieman

3/27/20 1:02pm

Nope. Don't you trust the German death to case ratio?

Indy Coug

3/27/20 1:08pm

The Germans and South Korean trends seem to be evolving similarly

coolcats

3/27/20 1:16pm

It doesn't contradict what I just said. No one is really doing enough serious work on quantifying

Indy Coug

3/27/20 1:19pm

I do trust the German number will be accurate at the end of the day.

Zoobieman

3/27/20 1:31pm

Yes, you basically have a 1.5% chance of dying if you have severe symptoms.

N8Dawg

3/27/20 12:26pm

If you have “severe” symptoms your chance at dying is a whole lot higher than

cougfanz

3/27/20 12:32pm

Sorry, worse than mild.

N8Dawg

3/27/20 12:34pm

That's scary!

darkcoug

3/27/20 12:31pm

That's showing total cumulative deaths, not deaths per day, right?

Scratch

3/27/20 12:34pm

Early on Death rate (Deaths per day) would be a good stat.

Zoobieman

3/27/20 12:49pm

It looks to be slowing the past couple days but today looks like a bigger day

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