South Korea would beg to differ.

Mar 28, 2020
5:37:27pm

Zoobieman Truly Addicted User

Ro: Presented back in January

Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus 2019 (n-CoV) on 23 January 2020

The meeting of the Emergency Committee convened by the WHO Director-General under the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005) regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus 2019 in the People’s Republic of China, with exportations currently reported in the Republic of Korea, Japan, Thailand and Singapore, took place on Wednesday, 22 January 2020, from 12:00 to 16:30 Geneva time (CEST) and on Thursday, 23 January 2020, from 12:00 to 15:10. The Committee’s role is to give advice to the Director-General, who makes the final decision on the determination of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of *1.4-2.5* was presented.

Updated Ro:
R0 in a strictly urban community, similar to NYC. Determined to be 2.24 - 3.58

sciencedirect

Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provin…

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220300539

Case Fatality Ratio:
Initially WHO stated 2%; Then over time with more widespread testing they determine the denominator was less than initially expected, with more and more testing the Case fatality rate keeps moving closer to 3.5%

worldometers

Wuhan Coronavirus Death Rate - Worldometer

Current estimated case fatality rate of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Incubation time: initially thought to be 1-3 weeks, with more data it looks that the incubation time is getting shorter. to being <14 days.

worldometers

Coronavirus Incubation Period (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Current estimated incubation period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear) for the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, China

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

Compare with Spanish Flu:
Ro: 1.5 -2.0 https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04795
Case Fatality Rate: 3% - 10%
Incubation Period: 3-7 days

All in all, this virus is looking to be similar to Spanish Flu (2nd wave), and acting like the virus will peak in 7-10 days is dangerous.