6000 positive tests in any 14 days given period and we are officially not caring for people as we could because we're out of room and maxed out. (This doesn't consider other capacities which are likely taxed before that limit).

We've had 800 positives in the last 10 days or so. It's growing at about 12% so far.

Assuming it keeps the same growth rate (which it won't) that's about 21 days from now when we're out of ICU beds at the current rate. It has to slow down.

Consider, too, that ICU beds are needed by others---not just folks who have COVID.

So, there's your rough math. There's not an actual expert on the matter who says anything else than the fact that we are 2 to 4 weeks away from feeling like we are making progress. But that comes only if we pin down the growth rate.

Then, in 4 weeks from now, we can make some decisions. It seems unlikely we'll just go back to normal on May 1. It will be gradual.

The truth is in the MD and epidemiologists who do press conferences for the government. Not the people who tell you what they said.