This year and next will be the ultimate measuring stick. If Sitake can't get the program back to national relevance (Top 25) in that time frame, then I think it's time to go in another direction.
I honestly think Holmoe needs to take significant responsibility if this doesn't work out. He hired an unproven head coach and then allowed him to hire several unproven assistant coaches in key roles. That's not a recipe for success...and Holmoe should have known that. I like Tom a lot and hope he stays on as AD, but this situation should have been completely foreseeable for someone with Tom's experience.