You have an interesting premise because its falsifiable: winning in a lower division where you don't belong doesn't make people or players or fans or coaches happy. Basically, your hypothesis is that the happiness, excitement, joy, and general positivity of the program is a good measure of whether or not we belong in whatever division is represented by our schedule. Wins and losses are part of that, but not all of it.
Assume that the schedule this year represents a "lower division" relative to the past few years of independence. Query: What do you think is the general sense of BYU fanhood, of player and coach excitement, of the general vibe of BYU football this season? How do you think that compares to the last 4 years? What does that suggest about where BYU belongs?