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Nov 23, 2020
3:33:41pm
moknowssports Walk-on
NY6 Bubble Watch Update, Pre-CFP Rankings Edition
I'm of the opinion that BYU has a really good shot at making an NY6 but it's not a guarantee. So here's a peak at teams that might steal those last couple of bids from us.

BYU didn't exactly get much help over the weekend in the "lock up" a NY6 at-large bid department. In fact, it might have made things a bit muddier. We still aren't entirely sure how the Washington drama fall out will help/hurt us in all of this either.

As a reminder, there are 12 total NY6 games, including the playoff and its 4 teams.

LOCKS (these teams can all survive ONE loss and still make NY6, and are unlikely to lose 2)
Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Clemson
P12 Champ
B12 Champ
G5 Champ (likely Cincy but they still have a Conference Championship Game to win; Coastal Carolina and Marshall waiting in the wings)

SHOULD BE IN (teams that can probably survive a loss and still make it)
Texas A&M
Florida

This gets us to 9 teams that are likely to be in the NY6 games, leaving just 3 spots left. Let's look at the contenders:

ACC (1)
Miami: only 1 loss, which was at Clemson; no wins against top 25 teams (similar to BYU); still plays North Carolina which would not be ranked if they lose to Miami (similar to BYU/Boise)

Big Ten (3)
Northwestern: it won't be a cake walk but it's not difficult to envision them at 8-0 heading into CCG against Ohio State; if they lose they would still make NY6
Indiana: they are the P5 version of BYU this year, everybody loves the way they play; if their only loss is to a Playoff-Bound Ohio State on the road...they still play another Big Ten upstart team in Maryland and Purdue is always looking for a chance to deliver an upset.
Wisconsin: they get to host Indiana in 2 weeks, so only one of these teams stay on the list after that! Wisconsin might still have troubles with Minny/Iowa b/c those are really big regional rivalries.

Big XII (0); no way a 3-loss team makes NY6 without an auto-bid, which the Big XII won't get

G5 (1)
Cincinnati if it wins out and loses CCG; they would likely remain in top 12 if they go 10-1 with their lone loss to Tulsa after having beaten them the week before.

P12 (1)
1-loss Pac 12 runner-up (likely USC/Oregon but it theoretically could be Washington/Colorado, although they have a lot of ground to make up in the rankings). USC/Colorado play this weekend so that will provide a clue on P12 race.

SEC (1)
Georgia: it's hard to envision four SEC teams in the NY6, but it's 2020 and Georgia could play 10 games to Big Ten/Pac 12's five to eight games. Their only losses would be to Bama and Florida, who might both be in the playoff if things fell right. BYU fans will be upset b/c Georgia "had their chance" and blew it, but that's not how CFB works unfortunately. Georgia should win its next two games (at South Carolina and then Vanderbilt at home) and then would likely get a make-up game at Missouri on 12/19. None of those are big games but it's the SEC...all those wins count more than North Alabama and SDSU.

That leaves 6 teams (counting Indiana OR Wisconsin, not both) plus BYU competing for 3 spots. Currently, BYU has the leg up on most of these teams, but most of these teams still have some big games to play. That means they have opportunities to win big games and jump BYU, but also leaves the door open for them to lose. Every loss by one of these contenders eliminates them where BYU is unlikely to lose its final game (knocking on wood as I type that). That's the biggest benefit BYU has in this discussion is that we have played the bulk of our schedule and other teams have 3+ games left. Regardless, here's some of specific things that would help us secure our NY6.

The winner of the Wisconsin/Indiana game struggling in their other games would make them look less appealing as a potential third Big Ten team. While I would personally love to see NW (I grew up going to NW games in the mid-90's during their Rose Bowl run) beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, that would only increase the chances that the Big Ten gets 3 teams into the NY6 and that's not the most helpful thing for us.
BYU needs Cincinnati to either lose twice OR win the CCG. They either need Cincy to get the auto-bid or be completely out of the discussion.
Any and all chaos in the Pac 12 would help. And we BYU fans would all love it b/c screw you, Pac 12.
Miami has eked out a bunch of close ones; they should just have one of those to finally go in the loss column. ND beating Clemson again would probably help too, but I'll fully admit my bias as both a BYU and Notre Dame alum...
I think if BYU could secure a decent game and win, that could help stave off any late charge by Georgia.

I hope that's helpful; perhaps the rankings will tell us more, in which case I can update Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
moknowssports
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