My take on what everything has to be in order for us to get the bid. (there could be some logic errors and things will change with upsets over the next couple of weeks but right now this is how I see it playing out).

1. OSU and Ala. and ND undefeated (if another B10 wins the champ OSU would get the last bid over us). Same for Alabama if Fla were to win the SEC. Clemson wins ACC champ and ND gets in over us.

2. B12 and P10 are already about out of it so business as usual should take these two out by then if they aren't already eliminated. Pac will probably eliminate themselves by only ending up with 5 games max played. Hence why the PAC is trying to smear BYU. I really want nothing to do with the Pac now. B12 or Indy as far as I care. The Pac conf. is basically an equal in strength to the old MWC (BYU, Utah, TCU, SDST or today's AAC and maybe not even that.

3. Win a game against TA&M on 12/18-19. This is now the only game that gets us into the CFP. Maybe a win against GA but I don't think that would elevate us above a 1 loss TA&M.

OR

4. Lots and lots of upsets of all the current 1 loss teams including Clemson, TA&M, FLA, GA., etc. Anyone who could pose a threat

For NY6

1. No more upsets and we are very likely in.

2. Biggest threat is Cincy. They lose one and we may be out because highest G5 will be outside the top12.

How I think it is shaping up for the CFP/NY6

1. Ala

2. OSU

3. ND

4. Clemson

5. FL. - will drop if/when they lose to Ala.

6. TA&M - win out and they could be CFP is Clemson loses again.

So the teams above are about the only ones left with a shot at the CFP.  It would take a miracle for anyone else on the list except NW.  They control their own destiny.  Win out and they are in.

7. Cin

8. BYU

9. Miami - Ny6 if Clem and ND go CFP

10. NW.  Win B10 champ (and no loses) in CFP

11. ISU.  NY6 if they win out,

12. Ore. NY6 if they win the Pac championship (I think unless there are some really big upsets the Pac is out of the CFP. Playing 4-6 games most likely won't cut it). 

on a side note regarding Ore.  I bet this would make all the other P5 conferences ecstatic.  To see an undefeated Ore get passed over.  Pac is now the pariah of the P5 conferences.  I would not be surprised that if the P5 left the NCAA that they ended up leaving the Pac behind.   (it would open up California for stealing the top recruits).