The way I see it: A win propels them atleast into a position where chaos could put Cincinnati into the CFP. A loss and they'd still get a NY6 game almost certainly as they likely wouldn't fall below CCU or Marshall.

The only reason the game could realistically hurt Cincinnati is in 1 of 2 ways:

1 - Cincinnati loses to BYU and then also loses to Tulsa the week after giving them a second loss. They likely would have made the NY6 with one loss, but 2 kills their season.

2 - BYU beats Cincinnati thoroughly and then loses to SDSU the next week, making Cincinnati's loss look even worse and potentially moving either CCU or Marshall ahead of them.