There are 12 total teams that will get NY6 invites.


6 of those invites are absolute guarantees that go to the champions of the SEC, B10, B12, ACC, PAC12 and the highest ranked G5 Conference Champion.

There are potentially 2 more guarantees that are contingent upon which 4 teams go to the CFP. These both have to do with the Orange Bowl in 2020. Normally the Orange Bowl hosts the champion of the ACC vs a secondary team from either the Big10 OR the SEC (Notre Dame is also included in this, but since they are part of the ACC this year, they don't have special Orange Bowl Treatment). If the champion of the ACC is in the CFP, then the next highest ranked ACC team goes to the Orange Bowl. If 2 teams from the ACC go to the CFP, then the 3rd highest ranked ACC team goes to the Orange Bowl, etc.

This same logic works for the ACC's opponent in the Orange Bowl. If the team that would normally fill the slot from the SEC or Big10 is in the CFP, then they keep working down the list of ranked teams until they find the highest ranked team from one of those two conferences that is not in the CFP.

That means that there are potentially 6 at-large bids, but in 2020, it will most likely be 4 at-large bids. Using tonight's rankings, here is how it would work. The first 4 teams are the CFP teams. Then, I've taken the other teams in order that get auto-bids (first) and Bowl Tie-in bids (second). Finally come the at-large teams.

College Football Playoff:
1) Alabama (SEC Champ, Auto Bid #1)
2) Notre Dame (ACC Champ, Auto Bid #2)
3) Clemson (At-Large #1)
4) Ohio State (B10 Champ, Auto Bid #3)

Remaining NY6 "Exhibition Games"
5) Cincinnati (G5 Champ, Auto Bid #4)
6) Oklahoma (B12 Champ, Auto Bid #5)
7) Oregon (Pac12 Champ, Auto Bid #6)
8) Miami (Orange Bowl Representative from ACC)
9) Texas A&M (Orange Bowl Representative from SEC/B10)
10) Florida (At Large #2)
11) Northwestern (At Large #3)
12) Georgia (At Large #4)

Of all those teams that are position for a NY6 right now they include teams ranked #1-11 and Oregon at #15. So, in this case any team ranked at least #11 is guaranteed a spot. Indiana, at #12, is the unlucky bubble team that loses out because Oregon, the PAC12 champion is ranked so low. However, it is an oddity to have a P5 conf champion ranked so low, and under normal circumstances the PAC12 champion would be in the Top 10 which would push Indiana down a spot anyway. So, technically a #12 team is in place to get left out right now, but that is an anomaly rather than a feature.

Now, while it is unlikely to happen, there are scenarios where a #11 team or a #10 team get left out, but they would require an incredible amount of chaos.

Right now, because the PAC12 team is ranked below #12, it reduces by 1 the teams ranked at #12 or above that can make the NY6. If something crazy happened in the BIG12 and their champion ended up below #12 as well, that would reduce another spot and then only the #10 teams and above would be assured of a spot. If Cinci were to lose a game (or two) and the G5 representative fell below #12, that could reduce the number of teams above #12 by one more.

It is almost impossible, at this point for the SEC, ACC or Big10 to have a conf champion below #12, so I won't even address that.

So, under the above, where the PAC12, BIG12 and G5 all have Conf. Champs that are ranked below #12, you would have a scenario where only teams ranked #9 or higher are in (#10, #11 and #12 are out). But that scenario is highly unlikely.

There is one other wild card that could push the threshold for inclusion up to #8 (assuming the above played out with PAC12, BIG12 and G5). That is if somehow the ACC got 3 teams into the CFP. If that were to occur, then the Orange Bowl would still get the next highest ranked ACC team, which could be someone like North Carolina. But that is almost entirely improbable at this stage.

So, unless some really odd things happen, it is very likely that any team ranked #11 or above is in. And unless there is one Conf Champ that ends up below #12, it will be every team ranked #12 or above that gets in.