From a statistical perspective, you are mistaking “possibility” and “probability”. In order for BYU to qualify for the CFP a very long list of things would have to happen that include crazy upsets and a re-thinking of how the CFP Committee thinks. All of those things have a very low probability of happening individually, and a much lower probability of happening together.

But, that doesn’t mean the probability is 0%. There are pathways that could less BYU to the CFP. Simply the probability of that happening is very, very low.

I don’t know of any rational-thinking individual believes that BYU will be in the CFP. But if you were given a chance to bet $1 on that possibility, and you would win $100million if they did, would you make that bet? Of course you would. Because there is a non-zero possibility that it could happen. If you truly believe there is a 0% probability that BYU makes the CFP, then you would never take that bet, as your only potential outcome would be to lose $1.

I don’t think that BYU has a realistic chance to make the CFP, but it is greater than 0%. And the post was simply trying to outline to a previous poster why Cinci and BYU are. It competing for a NY6 bid, but there is some small potential where they could compete for a CFP bid.