Good points, but I don't think OSU nor A&M would schedule BYU....simply to keep us out. Ohio State would not happen, and A&M may look elsewhere (but what do I know).
Even if we played and won they would find a reason to keep us out. Bama and ND or Clemson (possibly both) are in. I believe a 2nd SEC team gets in before us. Thus you would have 4 spots locked in before we get a look. What about all the other teams in front of us (A&M, FL, ISU, Miami, Georgia, Cincy etc.) are they all going to lose?
If Bama loses I think they stay in and the team beating them in the SEC championship goes too. If Clemson beats ND they are in and ND could be in too if the score is close (we should be big ND fans so Clemson gets eliminated). Realistically Ohio State will be in and not be upset.