And I see some severe Sun Belt underrating going on.

BYU doesn't have a strong track record with East Coast games. Based on that alone, you can't look past Georgia Southern.

Also, '20 Georgia Southern was an 8-5 bowl team that beat Louisiana Tech 38-3 in the New Orleans Bowl (compare to BYU's 45-14 home win). They lost @ #19 Louisiana by 2 points, lost @ 9-win Army by 1 point, and lost to #26 Appalachian State by a single score. I expect BYU to beat Georgia Southern, but it's not going to be an easy game and no where close to an Idaho-State-level, almost-certain win. Time for a reality check.

ALMOST CERTAIN WIN
Idaho St

LIKELY WIN
South Florida, @Utah State

FAVOR BYU
Arizona(in Vegas), Boise State, @Georgia Southern

TOSS UP
@Baylor, @Wazzu, UVA

FAVOR OPPONENT
Arizona State

LIKELY LOSS
Utah, @USC