I always find this a flawed logic; being favored in 12 games doesn't mean 12 win

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Apr 12, 2021
10:23:23am

krindorr Truly Addicted User

I always find this a flawed logic; being favored in 12 games doesn't mean 12 win

If we had a 70% chance of winning any individual one of these games, one mentality says we're favored in every game, so we should expect to go undefeated.

The other, more statistical, mindset says that if we play a bunch of games with some non-negligible chance of defeat, we'll lose a couple, even if no individual specific loss is likely.

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krindorr

Bio page: krindorr
Joined: Oct 5, 2020
Last login: Apr 30, 2024
Total posts: 17,891 (107 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

With how much crap we got last year for our "weak" schedule, I think going

GhostRider

4/11/21 12:22pm

Hate to say it but we’d still lose 3-4 games.

stoils

4/11/21 12:25pm

Not last year

Cougar TD

4/11/21 12:27pm

Who can say. 7 point win against UTSA, Sunbelt loss, and uncomfortable games vs

reddead

4/11/21 12:52pm

Yep. We would be lucky to be a 9 or 10 win team.

MrClark

4/11/21 2:25pm

Bwah ha ha.

Benfica1

4/11/21 2:37pm

Um...pretty much all those teams are better than these P5's listed

RUNBYU1

4/11/21 5:43pm

We lost to CC mainly due to defensive coaching/scheme. To beat all p5s=change it

happyhiker

4/11/21 3:20pm

I'd be ok 9-3 or 8-4 against that schedule.

paulb

4/11/21 12:28pm

Purdue and Washington State are the only ones there that give me pause.

Adwight

4/11/21 12:32pm

Georgia Tech is greatly improved and would be a threat

krindorr

4/12/21 7:58am

They are improving but still in massive personnel turnover which is why

Adwight

4/12/21 3:56pm

I think we'd be favored, but it wouldn't be anywhere near a guaranteed win

krindorr

4/12/21 4:21pm

The truth that no one wants to hear. A team that loses to Toledo, USF, SDSU, HI

reddead

4/11/21 12:48pm

So, multiple teams from years ago when everyone was young? Seems relevant

4/11/21 12:53pm

I don't think they played any of those teams last year.

Benfica1

4/11/21 1:36pm

You're right. Most of the teams they played were much, much worse

reddead

4/11/21 2:57pm

...and they beat them.

Benfica1

4/11/21 3:08pm

Nearly all of them. I think things might have been different w/a better schedule

reddead

4/11/21 3:23pm

And yet your comparison was talking about things from 3 seasons ago .

4/11/21 3:34pm

Maybe things would be different. You never know.

Benfica1

4/11/21 3:34pm

I think 9-3 is honestly a good estimate.

GhostRider

4/11/21 12:59pm

Every fan base has one of these guys. Truth: Nah. BYU wins all.

Benfica1

4/11/21 1:35pm

You are forgetting 1st rule of P5 snobbery: when BYU beats a bad P5 team...

4/11/21 1:42pm

Yep. When BYU beats OU/UT/USC, they're by definition having a "down year"

reddead

4/11/21 3:24pm

I'll gladly take the crap with the wins.

Forzaitalia

4/11/21 1:45pm

This is correct scheduling - At least 8-9 P5 games every year. Just like all P5s

TeeKaa

4/11/21 2:22pm

Well, since we’d have to play most of those teams on the road- it’d be tough. 8 wins would be a good year.

PJMort

4/11/21 3:32pm

If getting talked about weekly, ranked week in and week out and a heisman trophy

franklyvulgar

4/11/21 3:47pm

some of these teams are reloading and will be tough games

mindzeYe

4/11/21 3:57pm

LOL. ok give me your bottom 12 p5 teams.

GhostRider

4/11/21 4:06pm

And you are spot on, I don't follow the coaching changes and recruits of

GhostRider

4/11/21 4:10pm

I’d love to do that — one time only though.

Dr MoBYU

4/11/21 4:31pm

Not if we got 10+ Ws

Pretorian

4/11/21 7:59pm

It'll be harder and harder to schedule P5 bottom feeders going forward.

4/11/21 4:49pm

Vanderbilt has that super woman kicking, so that'd be a L

DMVCougar

4/11/21 6:53pm

I don't know. Could BYU adjust to her perfectly-executed pooch kickoffs?

reddead

4/12/21 9:07am

And that schedule is much more difficult than what BYU played last year. BYU

Fargo

4/11/21 11:04pm

The problem is you cannot predict which years they are actually bottom

Ash

4/12/21 6:35am

If they pundits hated the weak schedule, why was BYU ranked so high? BYU will be

DoseOfReality

4/12/21 8:53am

In any normal year if BYU made that same schedule on their own and went

GhostRider

4/12/21 10:44am

Disagree BYU is a big enough name still if they rack up the wins they’ll get the

franklyvulgar

4/13/21 12:11am

8-4

CrimsonCardinal

4/12/21 9:14am

Name the losses.

Benfica1

4/12/21 9:32am

Vanderbilt is a guaranteed L. Special teams powerhouse.

DMVCougar

4/12/21 10:13am

I always find this a flawed logic; being favored in 12 games doesn't mean 12 win

krindorr

4/12/21 10:23am

Yeah, the reason teams play games. Aren't you curious about the 4 losses?

Benfica1

4/12/21 10:43am

Exactly

RUNBYU1

4/12/21 3:00pm

That’s basically an ACC equivalent schedule if you are Clemson

stoils

4/12/21 4:55pm

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