Specifically, at Baylor and at USC, but all those stronger teams. I agree with your assessment on the weaker teams. I think they've got a slightly higher chance of winning at USU than you do, in fact.
vs Arizona (neutral) 80%
vs Utah (35%)
vs Arizona State (40%)
vs South Florida (80%)
@ Utah State (90%)
vs Boise State (60%)
@ Baylor (20%)
@ Washington State (50%)
vs Virginia (60%)
vs Idaho State (99%)
@ Georgia Southern (90%)
@ USC (20%)