As a member of a conference, even a restructured Big12 or AAC, BYU gets guaranteed access to the CFP. This is all the more important as the major bowls will all become CFP games.

So, it's not a matter of whether BYU will join a conference, it's a matter of which conference holds BYU in enough esteem to issue an invite. The AAC does. But, does the Big12, even a decimated Big12?