I just don't think San Diego St helps that much right now. Long-term, they might be a smart choice, but don't think the Big 12 can afford to think too long term at the moment. For me it's Cincy, UCF, BYU, Houston

The one other part I disagree (slightly) on, is the value of the next Big 12 deal. Right now (with Texas and Oklahoma in the conference), the Big 12 has a 13 yr, $2.6B deal - or $200M/yr on average. With the current 10 teams, that breaks down to $20M/yr per team.

I'm sure the deal was designed to increase in value so it's probably higher than average at this point, but they've also stated that they'll be losing 50-75% of their revenue. So even if the current value was closer to $30M/yr/team, that estimate puts the next TV contract in the range of $7.5M-$15M per year per team. I'd expect it to be towards the higher end of that range (just given inflation and because I think the 75% is a high estimate), but $20M seems unlikely.

That said, even if it's $10M or $12M or maybe $15M per year per team, that's still a big win for BYU ($4.5M/yr on previous deal, new deal starting this year), AAC teams (just started $7M/yr/team), or especially any MWC team (...not good).

It's just going to a rough change for a Baylor, K-State or TCU who is used to getting $25M to suddenly only get $12M