one FCS instead of another P5 opponent. Utah is already a solid P5 opponent. BSU/USU are G5 rivals with an incentive to rip our heads off every year. The other two games need to be penciled in wins: a crappy G5 team (like UNLV) and an easy FCS team like Southern Utah, Weber State, etc.
In the first few years of Big 12, we can't afford to make our out of conference schedules too hard because our conference schedule will be brutal. Once BYU makes the adjustment to P5 level, then we can afford to schedule out of conference games more aggressively.