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Nov 16, 2021
2:36:11pm
cougarfan84 All-American
Here are the matchups this week in the PAC-12 and how they implicate the
standings, etc.:

Arizona at Washington St. - WSU is a heavy favorite here. Would be shocked if they don't win.
Washington at Colorado - Washington is not good, but Colorado is terrible. Should be a Washington W.
Cal at Stanford - A tight game between 2 bad teams. Neither of whom will be bowl eligible. Cal is a slight favorite, but does it really matter?

Arizona St. at Oregon St. - ASU is the slight favorite here, but this is essentially a toss-up. Loser is eliminated from PAC-12 title contention. I'm picking an ASU win here.
UCLA at USC - Another toss-up game. The Vegas line and some computers favor UCLA. FPI favors USC. USC is playing for bowl eligibility. UCLA is already bowl eligible. Neither can win the division (though UCLA may be able to play themselves into a better bowl situation still). For arguments sake, I'm picking UCLA here.


Oregon at Utah - Utah is the slight favorite in this one, though Oregon is the higher ranked team. A Utah win seals the division title for them and puts Oregon in a potential showdown with Oregon St. for the division title IF Oregon St. beats Arizona St. An Oregon win clinches the North Division title, while Utah would need to simply beat a bad Colorado team to get the South division title (or if ASU loses to Oregon St. that would do it as well). For the sake of this example, I'm picking an Oregon W here to keep their playoff hopes alive.


If the above results happen, we get the following standings:

North:
1. Oregon 10-1 (7-1)
2. Washington St. 6-5 (5-3)
3. Oregon St 6-5 (4-4)
4. Washington 5-6 (4-4)
5. California 4-6 (3-4)
5. Stanford 3-8 (2-7)

South:
1. Utah 7-4 (6-2)
2. Arizona St. 8-3 (6-2)
3. UCLA 7-4 (5-3)
4. USC 4-6 (3-5)
5. Colorado 3-8 (2-6)
6. Arizona 1-10 (1-7)


First things first, the PAC-12 North outside of Oregon is pretty terrible. the 2nd place team could end up being 6-6.

Second, the pressure would be on Utah in the above scenario to beat Colorado in the final game of the season to win the division. It is unlikely that Arizona St. loses to Arizona, and if Utah loses to Colorado they lose the division title and have no shot at the Rose Bowl (as they would be behind both Arizona St. AND UCLA in the pecking order at that point). In fact, that would be awesome to see that collapse at the end of the season for them to go from everybody projecting them in the Rose Bowl to them finishing the season at 7-5, 2nd in the division, and playing in the Las Vegas Bowl or Holiday Bowl.


Assuming Utah beats Colorado in the season finale, Arizona St. beats Arizona, UCLA beats Cal, USC loses to BYU and beats Cal, you get the final South Division standings:

1. Utah 8-4 (7-2)
2. ASU 9-3 (7-2)
3. UCLA 8-4 (6-3)
4. USC 5-7 (4-5)
5. Colorado 3-9 (2-7)
6. Arizona 1-11 (1-8)

Then if Oregon beats Oregon St., Washington St. beats Washington, and Stanford loses to Notre Dame, we have the following South Division standings:

1. Oregon 11-1 (8-1)
2. Washington St. 7-5 (6-3)
3. Oregon St. 6-6 (4-5)
4. Washington 5-7 (4-5)
5. California 4-8 (3-6)
6. Stanford 3-9 (2-7)

In this scenario, Oregon could very well be in the playoff with a W against Utah in the CCG. But then Utah would be 8-5. At that point, I would think the Rose Bowl would lean towards inviting either Arizona St. or UCLA to the Rose Bowl. Likewise, I would think that the Alamo Bowl would grab the other of those 2 teams. This would then put Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl as essentially the #4 team picked from the PAC-12 (with Washington St. and Oregon St. ending up in the Holiday and Sun Bowls respectively).

If for some reason a 12-1 Oregon team ends up not in the playoff (perhaps Ohio St. loses to Michigan and Michigan St., that W no longer looks as good, and the loss to Stanford drags them down and the top 4 ends up between the group of Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma St.). They would then be in the Rose Bowl, and the other bowl games would be dropped down to where Utah ends up in the Holiday Bowl playing a 6-6 North Carolina team.
cougarfan84
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Related Threads Topic: Utah pretty much locks up the Rose Bowl with a loss this week. (Corn Pop, Nov 16, 2021 at 1:37pm)

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