I think Utah beating Oregon soundly and becoming the PAC12 champ could make that win stand out enough to bump us over Oklahoma even if we're behind tonight. The reality is that it'd be super close either way so tiny things could swing it.

Imagine that the rankings tonight are
...
9. Baylor
10. Oregon
11. Michigan St
12. Oklahoma
13. BYU
14. Iowa
15. Wake
16. Pitt
17. Utah

If they beat Oregon, they clearly move ahead of Oregon, Iowa (assuming loss to Michigan) and the ACC loser. So the floor would be 14

They'd also have the potential (depending on how much weight the committee puts on conference championships), to pass any of Baylor, Oklahoma, BYU, or the ACC winner.

While that is unlikely (and would be infuriating in its own way) their ceiling would likely be 10.

If our best win is against the #12 (or so) team in the country while Oklahoma's best is unranked Iowa St, that's enough to offset the difference between the Boise and Ok St losses.

But if Utah loses and ends up ranked #24...then it's not that much better to have beat a barely ranked 9-4 Utah than it was to beat a 7-5 Iowa State. Better sure, but not enough to make up the difference in loss quality.

Granted, I don't hate Utah as my sole purpose the way some do here, but if the final CFP rankings look like:

1. Michigan
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Cincinnati
5. Oklahoma St
6. Notre Dame
7. Ohio State
8. Ole Miss
9. Michigan St
10. Utah
11. Pitt
12. BYU
13. Oklahoma
14. Baylor
15. San Diego St
16. Oregon
17. Wake
18. NC State
19. Clemson
20. Arkansas

I'd absolutely take it. Yeah, there's some negatives there (don't think they're likely, but imagining worst-case scenario where we still get in) and that terrible subset of Ute fans would be beyond obnoxious. But we'd also be in an NY6 bowl against Pitt, Notre Dame or Michigan State.

I don't care enough about making Utah fans unhappy that I'll sacrifice that opportunity.