My concerns on Hall's draft status have nothing to do with his quality as a college QB.

1. Jaren Hall will be 25 at the time of the draft. In the last 50 years, only 4 QBs 25 or older have been drafted, and the results on them were all bad (Chris Weinke, Brandon Weeden, John Beck, Matt Mauck). Add that to his extensive injury history and I'd imagine his NFL draft status is lower than someone else who performed similarly in college.

2. The second issue is with the biased nature of fan assessment. We all share this one from Cam Mellow that has Jaren Hall going in the 1st round - as the 7th QB drafted. 7 QBs in the first round would be an all-time record. Not saying it's impossible, just seems very unlikely. Historically the 7th QB goes in the 4th round (sometimes late 3rd).

And that's where I stand - Jaren Hall has a range of possible outcomes. And in his (normally distributed) range of potential outcomes, the fattest part of the curve is probably the 4th round (could also be late 3rd, either of which is still great)


And towards the tail end of the distribution (on either side) there's the chance that he goes undrafted or as a first rounder. Both those things are fairly unlikely, but both possible (if he has a great/terrible season). But because we as fans only share or note the small percentage of scenarios/predictions that have Jaren Hall going very early, we've mentally shifted our expectation that the median outcome is 2nd round and the worst case is 4th or 5th.

I do think he likely gets drafted, but I'm a "hater" in that I feel we're overlooking factors that will matter to NFL teams and that we (as a fanbase) are inflating our expectations based on selection bias by repeatedly sharing the one mock that puts him in the first, when hundreds of others don't do so.

And the fact that I'm a "hater" for thinking his age will be a concern or that we WON'T have a record number of first year QBs or that he's not GUARANTEED to be drafted tells you that our mindset has gotten a bit out of whacj on what we expect for him in the draft

Again, none of those critiques are of Jaren Hall as a quarterback or about what I think of him at the college level