Let me explain . . .

The new TV deal is valued at $7-8B over 7 years. Let’s just assume it’s $8B. That works out to be $1.14B per year. Divided by 16 that is $71.4M per school per year.

Now the TV deal has an expansion escalation clause that can bring that deal up to $10B. If you take that $2B difference and divide it by 7 years you get $286M per year. Divide that by $71.4M and it is enough to feed four mouths before diluting everyone else. In essence, the B1G has a pro rata clause that lets it add up to four schools before everyone starts losing money.

So taking four PAC schools is very much worth it. Don’t forget adding those schools creates more inventory that can’t be filled by CBS, NBC, or Fox - the 10:30PM EST slots. Guess who could bid for those? ESPN. Basically the B1G can make more money off expansion on top of that $10B.

Next, when you consider 9:30PM CT starts for West Coast road games might be very tolerable for Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin fans, it gets more lucrative. Rather than have viewers all in the Pacific Time zone that comprises 17% of the population; you add the Central time zone which is 28% of the population. That is reaching 45% of the population rather than 17%. B1G fan bases are more engaged so you can see how B1G schools in the central time zone playing the B1G west coast schools can bring a lot more viewers than the traditional PAC vs PAC fan base viewers. This means a wider audience which means more ad revenue for ESPN and money for the B1G. ESPN stands to get a piece of the B1G and make more money off of schools that would traditionally be in the PAC only inventory.

In summary, the expansion escalation clause hedges against dilution for the B1G and makes more money for ESPN while giving it a piece of the B1G. ESPN has zero incentive to overpay the PAC and stands to make more by its dissolution. For this reason the PAC’s existence is terminal.