Sep 28, 2022
12:38:10pm
12:38:10pm
Things starting to heat up in the news. The (Nash) game theory is interesting here... would WaSt and OrSt sacrifice?
Numbers being reported today by CBS is that Pac is $21M to $30M. But that is for all 10 current schools.
B12 is talking about $45M per year with the new B12.
MWC is currently at $4M per year per school.
If any school leaves the P12 then PAC value has to drop to the $21M as opposed to the $30M. Likely below $20M.
Every P12 school except for Oregon and Washington is in danger of being left out of the shuffle. ORSt probably most in danger right? So, Would Oregon St. be willing to jump now to the B12 for a $20M contract just to avoid relegation to the new MWC and risk only getting paid 4-7M a season? Meaning, you agree to take less than full freight just to be included and not relegated?
If the PAC folds, which sounds increasingly likely. The best case scenario is ending up in the B12. But if the P12 folds you have zero leverage to get in. B12 gets to choose who it will. So you are really looking down the barrel of a MWC move.
Your value in moving quickly is at least you make a move to control your destiny (ORSt or Wazzu). How does making this move help the B12? Well, right now Oregon and WA are holding out for an invite to the B1G. The article below makes clear that it is not a given that the B1G expands further. There is lots of pushback from ADs and Presidents. So, what an earlier mover to the B12 offers is it forces the bigger P12 teams to move as well.
I think if I'm ORSt or Wazzu I reach out to the B12 on this basis. Agree to take less so you don't get stuck in the MWC. That makes you additive in value if you are taking less of the pie. You also add the 4th time zone that the B12 wants. If you play it right, B12 probably pays you more for being a first mover and making it happen.
Why does the B12 do this? Because it destroys the P12 and the rest of the members have to come on their knees to the B12 negotiating against each other, once again, for a smaller cut of the pie. They have no leverage after the P12 crumbles. Even Oregon and Washington have no leverage.
(See Cougarcanuck).
B12 is talking about $45M per year with the new B12.
MWC is currently at $4M per year per school.
If any school leaves the P12 then PAC value has to drop to the $21M as opposed to the $30M. Likely below $20M.
Every P12 school except for Oregon and Washington is in danger of being left out of the shuffle. ORSt probably most in danger right? So, Would Oregon St. be willing to jump now to the B12 for a $20M contract just to avoid relegation to the new MWC and risk only getting paid 4-7M a season? Meaning, you agree to take less than full freight just to be included and not relegated?
If the PAC folds, which sounds increasingly likely. The best case scenario is ending up in the B12. But if the P12 folds you have zero leverage to get in. B12 gets to choose who it will. So you are really looking down the barrel of a MWC move.
Your value in moving quickly is at least you make a move to control your destiny (ORSt or Wazzu). How does making this move help the B12? Well, right now Oregon and WA are holding out for an invite to the B1G. The article below makes clear that it is not a given that the B1G expands further. There is lots of pushback from ADs and Presidents. So, what an earlier mover to the B12 offers is it forces the bigger P12 teams to move as well.
I think if I'm ORSt or Wazzu I reach out to the B12 on this basis. Agree to take less so you don't get stuck in the MWC. That makes you additive in value if you are taking less of the pie. You also add the 4th time zone that the B12 wants. If you play it right, B12 probably pays you more for being a first mover and making it happen.
Why does the B12 do this? Because it destroys the P12 and the rest of the members have to come on their knees to the B12 negotiating against each other, once again, for a smaller cut of the pie. They have no leverage after the P12 crumbles. Even Oregon and Washington have no leverage.
(See Cougarcanuck).
Originally posted on Sep 28, 2022 at 12:38:10pm
Message modified by cbluil on Sep 28, 2022 at 12:41:47pm
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9/28/22 12:48pm
Yormark has also made clear he's looking in the 4th time zone. I'm assuming he doesn't want Cal or Stanford
9/28/22 12:49pm
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