This is why some Utah fans think they have a shot at the B1G... and also why they are wrong
Considering all programs not in the B1G or SEC, the best schools available (by on-field, schedule-adjusted success agianst P5 opponents over the last decade) are:
note that data does not yet include 2022 season as quality of wins can't yet really be assessed
Team (Overall CFB Rank, % Alabama)
- Clemson (#3, 96.8%)
- Notre Dame (#6, 83.4%)
- Oregon (#7, 78.1%)
- Stanford (#10, 72.6%
- Oklahoma St (#11, 69.8%)
- Florida St (#16, 68.9%)
- Houston* (#20, 65.1%) — very limited sample size here means I don't trust it
- Baylor (#21, 64.7%)
- Utah (#22, 64.7%)
- Cincinnati* (#24, 64.3%) — very limited sample size caveat
- Washington (#25, 63.3%)
... so those are all top 25 teams in performance over the last decade. And if you remove the small-sample G5 outliers, those are (almost) all fantastic, desirable schools that any conference would lvoe to have. So Utah fans look at that and mistakenly think they're on par with Oregon and Florida St and Washington....
But we all know that on-field performance isn't the key when it comes to expansion. So let's look at viewership scores of non-B1G/SEC teams over the last 5 years (my dataset doesn't go as far back there), which matches up a LOT better with what teams are desired
note that data does not yet include 2022 season since some teams have backloaded or front-loaded schedules (although BYU has fantastic viewing numbers so far this season)
Team (Overall CFB Rank, % Alabama)
- Notre Dame (#7, 59.9%)
- Clemson (#9, 57.0%)
- Oregon (#19, 32.9%
- Miami (#20, 31.6%)
- Florida St (#21, 30.9%)
- Oklahoma St (#23, 28.7%)
- Washington (#28, 26.3%)
- Army (#30, 23.9%) — boosted by huge numbers for Army/Navy game and multiple ND games
- West Virginia (#31, 23.6%)
- Stanford (#33, 22.0%)
Notre Dame, Clemson, Oregon, Florida St, Oklahoma and Stanford show up on both lists. There's your easy top expansion targets, with Washington (#11 on the performance list, #7 on viewership) and Miami (by virtue of being so high on the more important list) also of interest.
Utah and Baylor are the two (non-G5) top-10 teams in performance that don't show up on this list... but are way down at #21 and #26 as TV draws among teams outside the B1G/SEC (and #48 and #55 overall). That's why they're not real expansion candidates.
There was the FOX quote about them liking Utah but wishing they had a bigger market... And this is where it comes from. If Utah could play like they do, but draw like Miami or Florida St or even Stanford or West Virginia, they'd be a very desirable team. But they're not even close right now.