On the one hand, Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, FSU, Clemson, and maybe Miami are really the only brand name schools left outside the B1G/SEC that can individually move the needle or drive ratings.
On the other hand, Oregon is barely hanging onto AAU status and doesn't represent a major metro area. You and I know AAU doesn't matter, but the B1G likes it. So what happens if Oregon and Washington go to the Big 12. Conference affiliation doesn't have much to do with research, but some impact ... And Oregon is barely hanging on, so it's possible they could lose that.
And then, when the B1G decides to expand West again, there's 3 potential choices
- Washington and Oregon - the default assumption
- Washington and Stanford - replacing Oregon with a better academic school in a better market, preferred by USC/UCLA as less of a threat to them, and better for enticing Notre Dame
- Washington, Oregon, Stanford and ... probably Cal? Going larger to get both Oregon and Stanford, but then trying to find a 4th fit is tough. Cal is great academically, but bad at football and overlaps the Stanford market. Utah is AAU and good at football/viewers but small market. Colorado is AAU and has growth potential with the market and Deion...but has some of the worst viewership in FBS. Arizona is Colorado without the same upside - better basketball, but smaller market and less history. Arizona St is a huge market, but not AAU and mediocre at best results/viewership
There's a possibility that Oregon going to the Big 12 could cost them their shot at B1G. Not a guarantee it would happen, but a possibility, especially if it indirectly resulted in them losing AAU status.