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Mar 30, 2023
9:41:58pm
moknowssports All-American
2017 was turning point, not 2011 as Utes would suggest based solely on Holy War
2011-2016:
Average Sagarin Rating: BYU 38; Utah 37
Average Wins: BYU 8.7; Utah 7.7
Average Losses: BYU 4.3; Utah 5.0
Win %: BYU 67%; Utah 61%
Average SOS: BYU 67; Utah 36

There is nothing here that would suggest Utah had much of anything on BYU other than a win streak of games (mostly) decided in the final minute. The programs were generally equal; Utah just made one more play each game than BYU did. We were mental weaklings and they were not.

2017-2022:
Average Sagarin Rating: BYU 57; Utah 25
Average Wins: BYU 7.8; Utah 8.3
Average Losses: BYU 5.0; Utah 4.0
Win %: BYU 61%; Utah 68%
Average SOS: BYU 74; Utah 46

There is nothing here that would suggest BYU has anything on Utah currently other than a 1-game win streak. Utah is vastly superior in every way in these metrics. Pac 12 being weaker than it had ever been managed to drop Utah's SOS 10 spots but it's still 28 spots higher than BYU's.

Removing 2020 which we can all agree was an outlier, Utah's edge increases even more. I only include this last and not in the rest of the discussion b/c one of Utah's advantages over the last decade was being in the Pac 12, but in 2020 that was a terrible disadvantage; so it should hurt their metrics. But still...them only playing 5 games throws off the numbers.

2017-2022, excluding 2020:
Average Sagarin Rating: BYU 67; Utah 19
Average Wins: BYU 7.2; Utah 9.4
Average Losses: BYU 5.8; Utah 4.4
Win %: BYU 55%; Utah 68%
Average SOS: BYU 67; Utah 39

BYU is barely over .500 and Utah is winning 2/3 of its games. This is a no-contest. Unfortunately, 2022 looked a lot more like the "normal" years we've had under Kalani and less like the Bronco years...
moknowssports
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moknowssports
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