I don't think anybody on here "swears" that Flugaur knows what he's talking about, but there are probably many who suspect he really does have an inside, credible source.
I have never listened to Flugaur but tend to believe he's as tied in as anybody who's sharing info. There are no guarantees in a situation like this. People can always change their mind. Or if you like, "the situation is fluid".
But everybody has to feel special about something, here's hoping this can fill your void.