Imagine you're a football coach and your team is down 2 with 40 seconds (and one timeout) left. The team just threw a pass to get to the 22 yard line, but it's now 4th down and the clock is running. Luckily you have one of the best kickers in the game, but your QB is hurt (think Purdy in the NFC championship) and has difficulty throwing the ball more than about 6 yards. What's the call?

Do you go for it on 4th down, trying to get the touchdown? Or do you kick the FG?
Do you call timeout, and if so, when? Do you let the clock run down to a few seconds or do you call time with the full 40 seconds remaining?

More importantly, does the "right" choice depend on the outcomes?

The right choice here is pretty obviously to kick the FG after letting the clock run down.

So you do that, and your normally sure-handed holder drops the ball. Did you make a bad call now in not taking a shot for the end-zone?

Then to make things worse, your opponent gets the ball with 1 second left and goes to kneel down and somehow botches the snap. Fumble and your team recovers. There would be time for another FG attempt if only you hadn't made the boneheaded choice to let the clock run down. Clearly you made a terrible choice in not calling timeout with 40 seconds.

Similarly, if you (and everyone else) want Recruit A and he signs with someone else...but then suffers a series of catastrophic injuries and never contributes, that doesn't make it a good move on your part, worthy of praise. And that's true, even if the guy you sign in his spot (Recruit B) ends up becoming a rotation player.

That's luck, not process