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Sep 2, 2014
1:58:47pm
Short kicks reduce the chance of taking it to the house
They're still bad because they give worse field position, but they should reduce the big play (probably because the ball is closer to the cover team when caught). I looked at this using 2006 D1A games (also kicking from the 35), and these were the percentage returned for a TD, excluding touchbacks, by distance:

<30 0.5% (on-side kicks, 1 TD in 197 attempts)
30-34 0.0% (0/78)
35-39 0.0% (0/125)
40-44 0.5% (1/200)
45-49 0.0% (0/246)
50-54 0.8% (4/489)
55-59 0.8% (8/947)
60-64 0.9% (13/1485)
65 1.0% (10/1052)
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