Sep 2, 2014
4:37:16pm
4:37:16pm
Your Boise State example is spectacularly poor
To that point in the season we were 12/12 on point after attempts, so it's not possible for Bronco to be put off overtime by missed PATs. Bronco went for two for the same reason any coach might go for two in a late, close game -- he's trying to win now instead of going to overtime. As Taysom had been the fourth-down red-zone specialist even when Riley was healthy, it's not that bad a gamble, though it didn't pay off. (The break-even success point would be 48% compared to average XP kicking.) We had both missed and made field goals by that point, but at the time many Cougar fans criticized Bronco's decision on the basis that *we* had the superior kicking unit.
Because it was Boise State, not us, that repeatedly bypassed FG opportunities in that game, taking only one of five plausible opportunities. And how many of those BSU were opportunities where the FG was the optimal play for average kicker/offense/defense? Exactly zero. I don't think you realize how infrequent it is for a FG to be the optimal play and *not* taken--when that happens, it's usually because of score differential rather than FG.
*Because* coaches kick field goals way too often, a kicker whose "ineptitude" encourages a coach to go for it on 4th down inside the 30 on a close game is likely doing them a favor. Excluding half-enders (when a kicker will be tried inside the 30 whether he's perceived as inept or not), the first down is more valuable and in some cases more likely.
One of the problems with Sorensen is that he had the leg for long kicks, and was therefore tried on them, though he never made them. Payne was never asked to make the long kicks, and therefore never missed them -- this is a *good* thing for BYU.
You identify those FGAs we "should" have taken but didn't try because of ineptitude, and I'll be happy to quantify them against the 96 field goals we attempted from 05-12 where the average team should not have kicked. For many of those kicks, we weren't an average offense, we were a good offense, tilting the equation further towards going for it.
Because it was Boise State, not us, that repeatedly bypassed FG opportunities in that game, taking only one of five plausible opportunities. And how many of those BSU were opportunities where the FG was the optimal play for average kicker/offense/defense? Exactly zero. I don't think you realize how infrequent it is for a FG to be the optimal play and *not* taken--when that happens, it's usually because of score differential rather than FG.
*Because* coaches kick field goals way too often, a kicker whose "ineptitude" encourages a coach to go for it on 4th down inside the 30 on a close game is likely doing them a favor. Excluding half-enders (when a kicker will be tried inside the 30 whether he's perceived as inept or not), the first down is more valuable and in some cases more likely.
One of the problems with Sorensen is that he had the leg for long kicks, and was therefore tried on them, though he never made them. Payne was never asked to make the long kicks, and therefore never missed them -- this is a *good* thing for BYU.
You identify those FGAs we "should" have taken but didn't try because of ineptitude, and I'll be happy to quantify them against the 96 field goals we attempted from 05-12 where the average team should not have kicked. For many of those kicks, we weren't an average offense, we were a good offense, tilting the equation further towards going for it.
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