I wouls say relative. I dont know a regression model that gives one absolute.

May 3, 2016
11:07:39am

ChinoCoug All-American

From the logit when you exponentiate the coefficient that gives the ratio between the change in the likelihood with an increase in teams.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on May 3, 2016 at 11:07:39am

Message modified by ChinoCoug on May 3, 2016 at 11:33:58am

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ChinoCoug

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Messages

Author

Time

12 team, 8 game Big12 increases playoff likelihood by 4-5 percent

Indy Coug

5/3/16 10:57am

Why would anyone assume the relative increase?

rggee

5/3/16 10:59am

The point being is he didn't clarify and in the example I gave

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:01am

It also seems to me like an absolute increase of 5% is still low.

Walter Bellhaven

5/3/16 11:04am

No, it's actually quite meaningful considering there are 5 major conferences

NOCAL_YFAN

5/3/16 11:05am

I think he means the actual likelihood is probably increased even more than 5%

rggee

5/3/16 11:07am

ADD subject line only read. I agree with the point.

NOCAL_YFAN

5/3/16 11:09am

If only a relative % increase, then he is REALLY pro expansion cuz that is some

NOCAL_YFAN

5/3/16 11:04am

I wouls say relative. I dont know a regression model that gives one absolute.

ChinoCoug

5/3/16 11:07am

It appears they did some sort of Monte Carlo simulation of thousands

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:13am

You're right I change my mind. Difference is in conditional probability.

ChinoCoug

5/3/16 11:31am

LOL!!! I have a couple of relatives like that...

CougarThug

5/3/16 11:14am

If you think about it, though, there's 4 playoff spots available and 5 P5s

jreid191

5/3/16 11:12am

The champ isn't guaranteed a spot, so not 80%

NOCAL_YFAN

5/3/16 11:15am

Assuming equal likelihood of each P5 conference placing a team in the playoffs

jreid191

5/3/16 11:21am

Yes, I agree that as the initial probability increases the difference

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:16am

Based on past history, the probability is 50%

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:20am

Also, this ignores the added value by getting more than 1 team in

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:22am

Definitely a lot of variables that their simulations would've had to account for

jreid191

5/3/16 11:29am

What I want to hear is the potential revenue increase for the Big 12 if they

ldssdl

5/3/16 11:17am

You assume that the Big-12 is starting with the same probability as the others

CougarThug

5/3/16 11:19am

That's not an assumption. I just pulled numbers out of the air

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:23am

Same numbers, essentially, but different way of looking at it.

CMuehle

5/3/16 11:20am

Trotter tweeted that the increase is "significant."

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