That's not an assumption. I just pulled numbers out of the air

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May 3, 2016
11:23:22am

Indy Coug All-American

That's not an assumption. I just pulled numbers out of the air

to make a point about relative and absolute differences.

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Indy Coug

Bio page: Indy Coug
Joined: Dec 20, 2001
Last login: Jun 13, 2024
Total posts: 185,514 (9,875 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

12 team, 8 game Big12 increases playoff likelihood by 4-5 percent

Indy Coug

5/3/16 10:57am

Why would anyone assume the relative increase?

rggee

5/3/16 10:59am

The point being is he didn't clarify and in the example I gave

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:01am

It also seems to me like an absolute increase of 5% is still low.

Walter Bellhaven

5/3/16 11:04am

No, it's actually quite meaningful considering there are 5 major conferences

NOCAL_YFAN

5/3/16 11:05am

I think he means the actual likelihood is probably increased even more than 5%

rggee

5/3/16 11:07am

ADD subject line only read. I agree with the point.

NOCAL_YFAN

5/3/16 11:09am

If only a relative % increase, then he is REALLY pro expansion cuz that is some

NOCAL_YFAN

5/3/16 11:04am

I wouls say relative. I dont know a regression model that gives one absolute.

ChinoCoug

5/3/16 11:07am

It appears they did some sort of Monte Carlo simulation of thousands

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:13am

You're right I change my mind. Difference is in conditional probability.

ChinoCoug

5/3/16 11:31am

LOL!!! I have a couple of relatives like that...

CougarThug

5/3/16 11:14am

If you think about it, though, there's 4 playoff spots available and 5 P5s

jreid191

5/3/16 11:12am

The champ isn't guaranteed a spot, so not 80%

NOCAL_YFAN

5/3/16 11:15am

Assuming equal likelihood of each P5 conference placing a team in the playoffs

jreid191

5/3/16 11:21am

Yes, I agree that as the initial probability increases the difference

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:16am

Based on past history, the probability is 50%

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:20am

Also, this ignores the added value by getting more than 1 team in

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:22am

Definitely a lot of variables that their simulations would've had to account for

jreid191

5/3/16 11:29am

What I want to hear is the potential revenue increase for the Big 12 if they

ldssdl

5/3/16 11:17am

You assume that the Big-12 is starting with the same probability as the others

CougarThug

5/3/16 11:19am

That's not an assumption. I just pulled numbers out of the air

Indy Coug

5/3/16 11:23am

Same numbers, essentially, but different way of looking at it.

CMuehle

5/3/16 11:20am

Trotter tweeted that the increase is "significant."

CosmoK

5/3/16 11:46am

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