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May 3, 2016
11:46
:30
am
CosmoK
All-American
Trotter tweeted that the increase is "significant."
That's a loaded word, right? I mean a small increase could be statistically significant, but practically not very meaningful.
I suspect Trotter means that it is practically meaningful, though.
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CosmoK
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CosmoK
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Jun 21, 2003
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Messages
Author
Time
12 team, 8 game Big12 increases playoff likelihood by 4-5 percent
Indy Coug
5/3/16 10:57am
Why would anyone assume the relative increase?
rggee
5/3/16 10:59am
The point being is he didn't clarify and in the example I gave
Indy Coug
5/3/16 11:01am
It also seems to me like an absolute increase of 5% is still low.
Walter Bellhaven
5/3/16 11:04am
No, it's actually quite meaningful considering there are 5 major conferences
NOCAL_YFAN
5/3/16 11:05am
I think he means the actual likelihood is probably increased even more than 5%
rggee
5/3/16 11:07am
ADD subject line only read. I agree with the point.
NOCAL_YFAN
5/3/16 11:09am
If only a relative % increase, then he is REALLY pro expansion cuz that is some
NOCAL_YFAN
5/3/16 11:04am
I wouls say relative. I dont know a regression model that gives one absolute.
ChinoCoug
5/3/16 11:07am
It appears they did some sort of Monte Carlo simulation of thousands
Indy Coug
5/3/16 11:13am
You're right I change my mind. Difference is in conditional probability.
ChinoCoug
5/3/16 11:31am
LOL!!! I have a couple of relatives like that...
CougarThug
5/3/16 11:14am
If you think about it, though, there's 4 playoff spots available and 5 P5s
jreid191
5/3/16 11:12am
The champ isn't guaranteed a spot, so not 80%
NOCAL_YFAN
5/3/16 11:15am
Assuming equal likelihood of each P5 conference placing a team in the playoffs
jreid191
5/3/16 11:21am
Yes, I agree that as the initial probability increases the difference
Indy Coug
5/3/16 11:16am
Based on past history, the probability is 50%
Indy Coug
5/3/16 11:20am
Also, this ignores the added value by getting more than 1 team in
Indy Coug
5/3/16 11:22am
Definitely a lot of variables that their simulations would've had to account for
jreid191
5/3/16 11:29am
What I want to hear is the potential revenue increase for the Big 12 if they
ldssdl
5/3/16 11:17am
You assume that the Big-12 is starting with the same probability as the others
CougarThug
5/3/16 11:19am
That's not an assumption. I just pulled numbers out of the air
Indy Coug
5/3/16 11:23am
Same numbers, essentially, but different way of looking at it.
CMuehle
5/3/16 11:20am
Trotter tweeted that the increase is "significant."
CosmoK
5/3/16 11:46am
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