quickly transitioning to autonomous driving by that time. Heavy-duty, over the road trucking will get there first. Most large fleets turn over at a clip of 5 to 7 years. The potential to become more efficient, eliminate or minimize people costs (in an industry that is challenged to stay staffed), and run on what are already mostly predetermined routes will drive the change and the upfront investment by the large fleets.

Tesla is making inroads (pun!) to this and if they can get their HD trucks built will sell like hot cakes. I still consider the Nikola Truck company to be vaporware but they are going to have a platform perfect for autonomous driving as well.